Is Amgen’s anemia franchise in trouble?
If you’ve been following our news, you may have heard about the FDA’s warnings on erythropoetic-stimulating agents, or ESAs. ESAs are a class of agents manufactured by Amgen that treat anemia. The first ESA was epoetin alfa, which was marketed in dialysis as Epogen by Amgen, and marketed in non-dialysis indications as Procrit by Johnson and Johnson (J&J). In 2001, Amgen launched Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa), a longer-lasting agent that can be dosed less frequently. Amgen retained the rights to all indications for Aranesp, and competes with Procrit in the non-dialysis markets such as chronic kidney disease (CKD) and chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA).
In December 2006, a Danish head and neck study concluded that when Aranesp is used in anemia of cancer (AoC), it triggered adverse events. It is important to note that Aranesp had never been approved by the FDA for use in AoC, and as such, Amgen has never promoted the use of Aranesp in AoC. When Amgen learned of the preliminary data, it informed the FDA within 24 hours, per FDA rules. However, because the data was preliminary, it did not tell investors until late January. (This is what the informal SEC inquiry is about.)
In February, the FDA confronted both Amgen and J&J in February and asked both companies to add a black box warning to their products that advised physicians to use the lowest possible dose of ESAs in treating anemia. Initially, this warning covered all use of ESAs (even use in chronic kidney disease), but after an outcry from the nephrologist community, the FDA amended the warning to include only AoC.
In May, the FDA’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) voted overwhelmingly to ban the use of ESAs on patients with certain types of cancer. The committee also recommended placing greater restrictions on ESA usage, including stopping the use of ESAs once chemotherapy treatments are over. Furthermore, the committee unanimously decided that more studies were necessary. As this is an advisory committee, its recommendations to the FDA are nonbinding, although the FDA usually follows its advisory committees’ recommendations.
The following week, based on the ODAC recommendation, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Studies (CMS) announced that it would curtail reimbursement for ESAs when used in AoC. Additionally, although CMS would still reimburse for CIA, they added a grace period to the last chemotherapy dose, after which they would not reimburse for ESAs.
ESAs make up a large portion of the CMS budget. Given that budgetary significance, it looks a lot to me like the FDA and CMS are working together to create policies that would reduce the cost of ESAs to the federal government.
But what’s the impact to Amgen? Well, although Aranesp and Epogen aren’t indicated in patients with AoC, we do make some money from off-label use, and that revenue source could taper off. Furthermore, the general cloud of suspicion over ESAs could cause physicians to use lower doses of ESAs or administer them less frequently, even for CKD and CIA. As a result, Amgen’s overall anemia revenues could grow more slowly than anticipated.
Our stock price took a major hit over this month, of course — major enough to make it to a lot of national news outlets. We took a bigger percentage hit than J&J did over Procrit, probably because more of our revenues are concentrated in ESAs than J&J’s revenues are. On the other hand, we have a more flexible cost base, so although it has been a little uncomfortable to make adjustments to cope with the new reality, we’re not going to become much less profitable.
Overall, I have been impressed by how well upper management handled this crisis, especially internally. Communication from the senior team has been forthcoming, and every manager between myself and my VP has sent out communication encouraging us to come talk about any concerns we have. I see a lot of confidence in the hallways, and no one is whispering about jumping ship. I bought our stock at $55 right after ODAC, and it’s already up to $57. We feel good. I feel good.
My only complaint is that I wish we had taken a more aggressive stance in messaging that our drugs are safe and effective when used properly, because I believe they are. Epogen and Procrit have been safely used for EIGHTEEN YEARS. Aranesp has been on the market for six. This stuff ain’t rat poison. Amgen is still learning how to win battles of public opinion, but if that’s our biggest problem, then we’re going to be just fine.
What are your thoughts?
